us tech · MSFT

Microsoft Corp.

$498.57+1.69 (+0.34%)

earnings n/aabove trigger

Synthesis · MSFT

tier LOW

STAND ASIDE

1/4 lanes aligned

Lanes disagree (1 bull / 0 bear). No high-conviction MSFT setup.

buy conviction

D · 26

Avoid: evidence does not support a long here.

confirmation checklist

3/8 passing

Trend stack (price > EMA20 > EMA50)433.74 / 438.93 / 427.95
At or near 20d breakout20d high 455.76 · trigger 456.34
RSI in power zone (50-72)RSI 45
Volume confirmation (>1.1x 20d)0.69x
Macro backdrop not hostileMacro NEUTRAL
Stop risk under 6% of price2.01% ATR stop
No earnings inside 7 sessionsdate unknown
Sector outperforming SPY (20d)n/a

Buy trigger

$456.34

20d high

$455.76

20d low

$426.89

Invalidation

$426.31

distance to trigger +5.21% · atr stop risk 2.01%

position sizer · paper only

Account size ($)Max risk (%)

Entry

$456.34

Stop

$447.61

Notional

$12778

Risking $250.00 ($8.73/share). Educational sizing — paper trading only.

TTechnical lane

EMA structure, RSI regime, trend integrity

BULL

tier MOD

EMA20 > EMA50 (438.93 > 427.95)
Price above SMA200
RSI 45

FFlow lane

Volume vs. 20d avg, momentum footprint

NEUTRAL

tier LOW

Vol 0.69x 20d avg
5d momentum -1.7%

NNarrative lane

Relative strength, sector tailwinds

NEUTRAL

tier LOW

20d relative perf 1.4%
AI capex tailwind narrative

MMacro lane

DXY, VIX, 10Y yields, NDX regime

NEUTRAL

tier LOW

VIX 14.7
DXY -1.23%
10Y -0.24%
NDX -0.46%

Educational tool. Not investment advice. Data provided by Finnhub API.